UFC on FOX 2 – Beat the Bookmakers
The Fight Lounge’s resident betting expert takes a look at this weekend’s UFC 142 event and which fights are worth having a flutter on.
An injury to Mark Munoz ruled him out of his scheduled fight against Chael Sonnen and after a bit of chopping and changing we have been left with an equally as exciting fight card for UFC’s second showing on Fox. The changes to the card have brought up some changes to the betting angles as Bisping to beat Maia by decision was a certainty in my eyes but we have still been left with some money making opportunities. We’ll have a look at the bets available in the main three fights on the card and follow it up by highlighting some of the main bets on the undercard.
The opening fight on the three-fight main card features Demian Maia taking on a late replacement in former collegiate wrestler Chris Weidman. This is a big step up in competition for Weidman (3/4) but that hasn’t stopped the bookmakers making him the favourite over Maia (11/8). This fight, along with the others on the main card, has decision written all over it in my eyes – Maia’s last 4 victories, and last 2 defeats, have came via decision and whilst Weidman has a variety of wins in his short career I think the step up in competition may negate his ability to finish this opponent. It will be a cagey fight both on the feet and the ground with both men respecting each other’s skills but I expect Weidman to do enough to squeeze out a 29-28 victory. Ladbrokes are a best price 13/8 for Weidman to win on points. Maia hasn’t submitted an opponent in the UFC since early 2009, when he defeated Chael Sonnen, but he is considered the best submission exponent in the division for a reason and if you think he can pull off the submission against Weidman then you’d do well to visit Paddy Power and take their 6/1 on offer.
In the co-main event I can only see one outcome and that is for the American Chael Sonnen (1/4) to come away with a decision win in his three round fight with Michael Bisping (19/5). Sonnen is quite a heavy favourite so the best price available for the decision win is 10/11 from Paddy Power. If you can’t see it and think Bisping will outwork Sonnen and avoid the takedowns then he is available at 5/1 in various places to win by decision. A more speculative bet might be to take some of the 14/1 available with SkyBet that Bisping wins by submission. It really is a speculative bet however as despite Sonnen’s 8 career submission losses, Bisping only has 4 submission victories amongst his 22 career wins and none of those have came in the UFC.
It seems a little boring to suggest another decision bet in the 5 round main event but, again, that is the only result I can see. I can also only see the decision going one way as Rashad Evans (4/7) should be able to outscore Phil Davis (31/20) on his way to earning his long-awaited title shot against Jon Jones. Evans should be able to comfortably better Davis on the feet and at the same time defend the majority of Davis’ takedown attempts. A lot has been made of Davis’ wrestling ability but he struggled for the takedowns initially in his win over Lil Nog and currently only has a 50% takedown success rate in the UFC, lower than Rashad’s 54%. Evans to take home the decision win is a best price 5/2 with Ladbrokes and I make that my best bet of the evening.
On the undercard, George Roop has shown serious improvement in his last two fights and siding with him to defeat Cub Swanson could pay handsomely at 11/8 with Betfred. I haven’t been impressed with Chris Camozzi and although I know little about his opponent, Dustin Jacoby, he could be a bit of value at 33/20 with Sportingbet. However the main bet to look for on the undercard is that of Charles Oliveria to get his featherweight career off to a flyer with an early first-round finish of Eric Wisely at a best price 7/4 with Paddy Power.
Recommendations
Rashad Evans to win by decision @ 5/2 Ladbrokes
Charles Oliveria to win in R1 @ 7/4 Paddy Power
George Roop @ 11/8 Betfred
Main Card Decision-fest? £10 on Evans, Sonnen and Weidman to win by decision returns £162 with Ladbrokes
Sub-No-Way? £10 on Maia and Bisping to win by submission returns £770 with Paddy Power
Undercard Delight? £10 on Roop, Jacoby and Einemo to win returns £172 with Betfred
By Scott Campbell
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